Rebel Governance and Development: The Long Term Effects of Guerrilla’s in El Salvador

16.05.2022 14:15 – 15:45

INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS SEMINAR / ABSTRACT

How can territorial control by armed non-governmental actors impact long-term development? This article investigates the economic, social, and political consequences of guerrilla's territorial control during the Salvadoran Civil War. It employs spatial regression discontinuity design and a novel dataset built from different administrative sources to compare areas around and close to the boundary of guerrilla's fully controlled territories between 1985 and 1992. Results indicate that areas inside and in close proximity to guerrilla-controlled boundaries have significantly less night light density, worse education outcomes, and lower wealth indexes relative to the areas outside in the 2010s. These effects are primarily driven by the erosion of labor markets, and higher political discontent and mistrust.

Sponsored by Centre LIVES

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