A Journey in Covid-19 Pandemic Modeling for The Hawaiian Islands (Monique Chyba, University of Hawaii)

05.07.2022 11:00

Mathematical models have been central to the public and policy debate throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. When combined with empirical data, modeling provides a valuable tool to characterize the extent of an epidemic, predict the scale of the potential healthcare problem, and explore the impact of different intervention strategies. Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We propose two new compartmental epidemiological models and study their equilibria, obtaining an endemic threshold theorem for the first model. We treat the second model as an affine control system with two controls: vaccination and mitigation. We show that this system is static feedback linearizable, present some simulations, and investigate an optimal control version of the problem. In the second part of the talk, we focus on contained environment such as archipelagos. We analyze the heterogeneity effects to discern what level of granularity and detail is appropriate for making policy decisions related to curtailing disease spread. We also analyze complexity both in terms of conceptual design and computational time of two types of epidemiological models: compartmentalized SEIR model and the COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator.

Lieu

Bâtiment: Conseil Général 7-9

Room 1-05, Séminaire d'analyse numérique

entrée libre