The export potential of services

19.03.2019 12:30 – 13:30

GENEVA TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP / ABSTRACT

Since the latest financial and economic crisis, the growth of services trade has outpaced the growth of trade in goods. Yet, detailed services data is scarce, impeding trade advisors and companies from learning about market opportunities. Using a novel methodology, this paper aims at filling the information gap by assessing the potential of countries to export services to different target markets. Inspired by a gravity framework, this methodology estimates an expected distribution of trade flows as the product of three factors: the exporter’s supply performance (exporter × sector-level), the projection of market demand (importer × sector-level) and an out-of-sample prediction of the relative "ease of trade" from the exporter to the market (exporter × importer × sector-level) using a set of gravity controls. The resulting export potential value is available for 195 countries and 11 services sectors. For 44 countries for which detailed data of services exports by sector and market is available, potential exports can be compared with actual exports to identify export growth potential.

Lieu

Bâtiment: IHEID

Graduate Institute
Maison de la Paix
Petal 2, Room S4
2 Chemin Eugène-Rigot
1202 Geneva

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