Securing European Borders? Enforcement, Politics and Externalisation

16.02.2026 14:15 – 15:30

INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS SEMINAR

(Jointly with Francesco Fasani)

Abstract:

This paper provides the first comprehensive evaluation of EU border policies' impact on migrant entry attempts, exploring administrative records on unauthorised border crossings combined with an original dataset on EU operations at land and sea routes. We proceed in four steps. First, we document a political cycle in EU enforcement investment, showing that control effort increases on routes that are geographically closer to EU Member States holding the rotating EU Council Presidency or having incoming elections, particularly in eurosceptic countries. Second, we develop an instrumental variable strategy leveraging this politically-driven exogenous variation in enforcement choices, and identify the causal impact of border operations on migration flows. Our results indicate that, while stricter enforcement reduces crossings along targeted routes, the effect is economically modest and primarily confined to land routes and migrants from non-refugee-sending countries. Third, we fail to detect a significant deterrence effect on overall migration, implying that route-specific enforcement primarily diverts flows across alternative routes. Fourth, we examine border enforcement externalisation and show that the 2016 EU-Turkey deal significantly reduced crossings via the Eastern Mediterranean, but diverted flows toward the Central Mediterranean Route. Our findings offer a cautionary tale about the effectiveness of EU border policies in deterring unauthorised inflows, suggesting that conflicting national interests and route diversion may contribute to undermining their efficacy.

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