Trade Policy and Jobs: Trump’s Trade War as a Shock on Vietnam

03.04.2023 14:15 – 15:15

GENEVA TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP / ABSTRACT

We use the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam and examine its effect on Vietnam's exports and labor markets. We find that Vietnamese exports to the US grew around twice as much between 2017 and 2019 in sectors hit by Trump's tariffs on China. This is mainly driven by new export product varieties. We find that this unintended expansion of export opportunities in Vietnam led to job creation for both female and male workers in affected sectors relative to non-affected ones, but wage gains were enjoyed mostly by men. Finally, we find no evidence of occupational upgrading in affected sectors.

Lieu

Bâtiment: Uni Mail

Uni Mail

Boulevard du Pont-d'Arve 40
1205 Geneva

Room M 3250, 3rd floor

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