Trade Policy in the shadow of Conflict: A quantitative toolkit for Geoeconomics

22.04.2024 14:15 – 15:30



This paper presents a quantitative toolkit for investigating the interplay between international trade and interstate war. A generic modeling framework is first constructed based on two core elements: (i) a structural gravity model of trade and (ii) a game of diplomatic negotiation that aims to deescalate geopolitical tensions and prevent armed conflicts. Methodologically, the setup extends the conventional quantitative procedures of trade policy evaluation to incorporate endogenous conflict risk. A series of empirically relevant scenarios (US decoupling from China and accession of Ukraine to the EU) is then simulated to assess the geoeconomic welfare gains of trade in a context of heightened conflict risk.


Mathias Thoenig is a Professor of Economics at the School of Business and Economics (HEC) at the University of Lausanne, a CEPR Research Fellow in the international trade, political economy and macro programs and an elected Council Member of the European Economic Association. He is a Distinguished Research Scholar at IMD Business School and the first recipient of the Centenary Visiting Professorship of PPE at University of Oxford. Mathias Thoenig received his Ph.D. from University Paris-1 Sorbonne and his B.A. in engineering from Ecole Polytechnique. He has held visiting and statutory appointments at International Monetary Fund, MIT, Queen Mary University of London, SciencesPo Paris, University of British Columbia and University Pompeu Fabra. He also served on the editorial boards of Journal of European Economic Association and International Economics. His research interests include development, international trade and political economy of conflicts and migration. He has published and forthcoming papers in several international journals, including, among others: American Economic Review, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, Harvard Business Review, Journal of European Economic Association. He has been awarded an ERC grant for his work on the role of distrust and grievances in ethnic conflicts.


Bâtiment: Uni Mail

Uni Mail
Room M 3250
Boulevard du Pont-d'Arve 40
1205 Geneva

Organisé par

Faculté d'économie et de management
Institute of Economics and Econometrics


Mathias THOENIG, Professor, School of Business and Economics (HEC), University of Lausanne

entrée libre


Catégorie: Séminaire

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